China’s growing energy appetite is met today largely by fossil fuels, domestic and imported. Domestic coal fuels most of electricity generation, despite efforts to diversify into natural gas, hydropower and renewables such as windpower and solar. It is noteworthy that, in 2010, China was the country that invested the most in the world on renewable power generation. And, in the process, became the major global supplier of solar and wind power equipment. By taking the lead in renewables, China is contributing more to greenhouse emissions abatement than many important developed economies.

Mobility of persons and freight is today provided by liquid hydrocarbons. The resulting growing emissions of greenhouse gases is an issue that China and the world need to contend with. Hence, there are opportunities for low fossil carbon energy systems, such as biofuel systems, to arrest climate change and global warming. 

However, the scale of the liquid fuels economy is enormous. Consequently, the market penetration of biofuels has limits, as a result of feedstocks ceilings and technological changes, especially information technologies, in the provision of transportation energy services and in the reorganization of human life, accruing from changes in the urban space, work systems and lifestyles.

Uncertainties on policies, laws and regulations, combined with access to land, water, technology, management, labor, local and global emissions, and the required large scale financing cause hesitation to biofuels investors, in China and elsewhere.

All the biofuels markets in the world only took off on the basis of mandates, subsidies and other support. However, such launching stimulus cannot last forever. And here technological innovation is the key to the future, especially by expanding the use of non-food feedstocks.

Chinese biofuels policies have evolved rapidly over the past 10 years. From a start based on grain feedstocks, in competition with food supplies, the present policies now emphasize high yield crops such as sweet sorghum, cassava and sweet potatoes. Furthermore, there is an increased focus on the so-called second generation feedstocks, based on non-food cellulosic materials. Nevertheless, as is the case universally, the market penetration of biofuels is intrinsically limited, in spite of the important contribution they make to the transition away from fossil fuels.

In addition, for sustainability to prevail, domestic biofuels production must co-exist with international trade. But, there are currently barriers to free biofuels trade. It seems therefore that a North-South BioPact compound is crucial for sustainability to be achieved.